How much room for growth in the senior housing market is there?

We are a Chinese fund that is interested in investing in ground up senior housing projects in Florida and Texas. It appears that we are not alone in this desire to invest in this market. Is there more room for these kinds of investments? When might the market become oversaturated?

Answers

On Sheri Chromow answered:

Given the aging of baby boomers, I believe there is room for growth in the senior housing markets. Specific markets require diligence in terms of need, income status of occupant pool. Are you looking at continuing care or senior living? What are the healthcare facilities and providers like in the particular marketplace? I would ask why those particular states. Florida may well be oversaturated, but that needs to be determined by locality. I would do some research into demographic shifts. I am in New York and see more and more people looking for places in the tri-state region. Areas like the east end of Long Island, because affluent children have homes there.

On Robert J. Ivanhoe answered:

I would anticipate considerable room for growth giving two factors: tremendous demographic growth due to the aging of the baby boomer generation and longer life expectancy for that generation, and the fact that both Florida and Texas are states with no state income tax or estate tax. Now that the new federal tax law eliminates deducting state income taxes from taxable income, the benefit in living in a low tax state has increased, so combined with people retiring, the much larger demographic of the baby boom generation and the like, I would think a good deal more senior and assisted living in these two states will be necessary to meet the growing demand.

On Korosh Farazad answered:

We believe senior housing sector still has room for growth in the US and Europe markets.

Ground up development in the sector is slightly different in terms of debt raise and development risk; however, over all, it is still a sector in demand and some cities have less inventory than others.

Just like any development, a feasibility report and careful assessment should be done to provide knowledge in terms of demand vs. supply.